UFC Fight Night: Alexander Poppeck vs. Jovan Leka (Heavyweight, Prelims)

● quote 27851 min ago

Sports→Closes: 19 daysLiquidity: $193.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $265.9KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Alexander Poppeck vs. Jovan Leka (Heavyweight, Prelims)

0.1¢

YES

99.9¢

0.1¢

Spread

anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection56Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJovan Leka (NO)$53.5K@ 72¢·surfandturf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

NO pressure: −$50.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

−$50.3K

−$38.5K

tracked

$89.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?

0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Only 0 tracked trades / 4 wallets in the 24h sample.
•Executable quote is 27851 minutes old.
•Observed tape is 27864 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

proposed

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-08-02 03:59 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Alexander Poppeck" if Alexander Poppeck is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jovan Leka at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Jovan Leka" if Jovan Leka is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Jovan Leka@ 100.0¢19d ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1h−$50.3K

6h−$38.5K

24h−$38.5K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current0.1¢

VWAP 24h23.1¢▼ below by 23.0pp

VWAP 7d23.1¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢