Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-08-09?

● quote 92 min ago
SportsCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $73.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $125.2KEvent: CF América vs. Portland Timbers
14.0¢
YES
86.0¢
NO
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets46Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:59 trades$54.2K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 98 min agoofficial metadata 95 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$14.5K·2 wallets·$20.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$8.1K@ 62¢·0x3b62…5cc8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$7.5K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$7.5K
6h
−$16.1K
tracked
$54.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: +$14.5K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 76% · priority 56

Since latest large flow: +25.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 92 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 98 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 95 minutes old.
  • Executable BUY price moved 25.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-10 02:15 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.leaguescup.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for August 9, 2026 If Portland Timbers wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
WTSA2 linked markets · $47.2K gross
0x2a69…d2f72 linked markets · $19.8K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $3.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY NO2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 62.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp
Latest book event: YES DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $2$156 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$7.5K
6h$16.1K
24h$16.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current14.0¢
VWAP 24h36.5¢▼ below by 22.5pp
VWAP 7d36.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$45.7K
30¢
$8.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
← now
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WTSAYes$17.7K
BUY VWAP 36.5¢·4 fills
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·7 fills
BUY VWAP 62.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.