Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

● quote 197 min ago
SportsCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $63.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.9KEvent: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals
36.5¢
YES
63.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly95Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:14 trades$25.9K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 216 min agoofficial metadata 199 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYOver (YES)$25.0K@ 54¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$713
6h
+$25.6K
tracked
$25.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: +$25.0K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Since latest deadline positioning: -18.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 197 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 216 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 199 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-27 22:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 27 at 6:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if the Toronto Blue Jays and Washington Nationals combine to score 10 or more runs in this game. If the combined total is less than 10, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $957 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Over@ 55.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Over@ 55.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -12.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 11.5pp · near-book depth $11$4 · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$713
6h+$25.6K
24h+$25.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▼ below by 17.5pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$3
55¢
$714
50¢
$25.2K
45¢
$0
40¢
$1
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYOver (YES)$25.0K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafOver$25.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.