Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers

● quote 38 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $147.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $506.7KEvent: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
84.5¢
YES
15.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets83Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:124 trades$69.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 46 min agoofficial metadata 43 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $50.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$60.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$55.3K@ 54¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$6.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.1K
6h
−$48.3K
tracked
$69.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$50.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 64

Since latest large flow: -39.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 38 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 46 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 43 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-03 22:40 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for July 27 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. This market will resolve to "Detroit Tigers" if the Detroit Tigers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $100.9K gross
0xc75b…3ea72 linked markets · $78 gross
0x4638…6b0a2 linked markets · $28 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Detroit Tigers@ 55.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -35.0pp
Latest book event: YES UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $24$154 · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$6.1K
6h$48.3K
24h$48.3K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current84.5¢
VWAP 24h49.1¢▲ above by 35.4pp
VWAP 7d49.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$26
85¢
$328
80¢
← now
$184
75¢
$200
70¢
$4.2K
65¢
$431
60¢
$54
55¢
$5.4K
50¢
$11
45¢
$58.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYDetroit Tigers (NO)$55.3K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafDetroit Tigers$55.3K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.