UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)

● quote 204 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $449.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $413.8KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)
1.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets89Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 67%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:145 trades$31.2K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 8%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 214 min agoofficial metadata 196 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$761·4 wallets·$860 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYQuillan Salkilld (NO)$11.4K@ 58¢·0x689f…259c

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$4.4K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$4.4K
6h
−$16.0K
tracked
$31.2K

4 verified profitable wallets: +$761 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 67% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 204 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 214 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 196 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-09 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Mateusz Gamrot" if Mateusz Gamrot is officially declared the winner of the fight against Quillan Salkilld at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Quillan Salkilld" if Quillan Salkilld is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $984 → $357 · 1s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4.4K
6h−$16.0K
24h−$16.8K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h39.4¢▼ below by 38.4pp
VWAP 7d40.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$37.6K
35¢
$1.0K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$3.3K
20¢
$798
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$153

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYQuillan Salkilld (NO)$11.4K@ 58.0¢0x689f…259c🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x689f…259cQuillan Salkilld$11.4K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.