Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

● quote 1266 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $313.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $228.9KEvent: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:43 trades$4.4K trackedsource coverage 26%BUY/SELL known 99%
tape 1300 min agoofficial metadata 1268 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $53.9K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$54.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHouston Astros (NO)$54.0K@ 54¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.2K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
−$59.2K
tracked
$4.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$53.9K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1266 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1300 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 1268 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-08 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, scheduled for July 31 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $81.8K gross
0x4f29…7a7e2 linked markets · $65 gross
0x5e50…c6652 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Houston Astros@ 54.0¢1d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: NO UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $1.3K$132.6K · 92s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.2K
6h$59.2K
24h$59.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h43.1¢▼ below by 43.0pp
VWAP 7d43.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$56.1K
40¢
$83
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$4
10¢
$8
5¢
$497
0¢
← now
$3.8K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYHouston Astros (NO)$54.0K@ 54.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafHouston Astros$54.0K
BUY VWAP 54.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.