Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

● quote 4321 min ago
SportsCloses: 3 daysLiquidity: $311.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $133.3KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
3.0¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 56%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES +$25.2K·3 wallets(1🐋)·$25.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$25.2K@ 39¢·0x3dfb…abaf

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$30.6K
tracked
$31.6K

3 verified profitable wallets: +$25.2K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 56% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Only 0 tracked trades / 32 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • Executable quote is 4321 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 4426 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-24 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 24 at 7:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game by 2 or more runs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 2d ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $5.2K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $1.4K gross
RN12 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 40.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Baltimore Orioles@ 40.0¢3d ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE24h UNAVAILABLE

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h+$30.6K
24h+$30.6K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h39.3¢▼ below by 36.3pp
VWAP 7d39.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$54
50¢
$386
45¢
$398
40¢
$72
35¢
$30.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYBaltimore Orioles (YES)$25.2K@ 39.0¢0x3dfb…abaf🐋3 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3dfb…abafBaltimore Orioles$25.2K
BUY VWAP 39.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.