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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

● quote 1060 min ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $659.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $808.1KEvent: Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
1.9¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 40%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:141 trades$23.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 4%BUY/SELL known 48%
tape 1069 min agoofficial metadata 220 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $10.8K·4 wallets(1🐋)·$10.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLos Angeles Dodgers (NO)$10.8K@ 58¢·ic4cream

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$1.6K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.6K
6h
−$617
tracked
$23.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: −$10.8K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 40% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •BUY/SELL is known for 48% of tracked volume.
  • •Executable quote is 1060 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 1069 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-08-06 02:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers, scheduled for July 29 at 10:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Seattle Mariners" if the Seattle Mariners win the game. This market will resolve to "Los Angeles Dodgers" if the Los Angeles Dodgers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 4h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 4h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x3dfb…abaf2 linked markets · $88.0K gross
0x0d2d…7ff52 linked markets · $60 gross
0x444d…a5fc2 linked markets · $7 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $116 → $2.3K · 2s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$1.6K
6h−$617
24h−$11.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.9¢
VWAP 24h32.0¢▼ below by 30.1pp
VWAP 7d32.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$10.8K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$165
25¢
$46
20¢
$257
15¢
$75
10¢
$211
5¢
$1.3K
0¢
← now
$2.5K

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYLos Angeles Dodgers (NO)$10.8K@ 58.0¢
ic4cream0x27f7…44b0
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ic4creamLos Angeles Dodgers$10.8K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.