O/U 1.5 Rounds

● quote 3 min ago
SportsCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $28.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Oban Elliott vs. Michael Oliveira (Welterweight, Prelims)
0.1¢
YES
100.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:7 trades$14.4K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 195 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder (NO)$13.6K@ 34¢·0x12af…ff78

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$13.9K
tracked
$14.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Observed tape is 195 minutes old.
  • Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolving
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-02 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Read full resolution rules

Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Oban Elliott and Michael Oliveira at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond August 15, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES DOWN 35.5pp · near-book depth $6$15 · 34s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$13.9K
24h$13.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h65.9¢▼ below by 65.8pp
VWAP 7d65.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$14.3K
60¢
$15
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$29

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYUnder (NO)$13.6K@ 34.0¢0x12af…ff78🐋about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x12af…ff78Under$13.6K
BUY VWAP 34.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.