San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins

● quote 3 min ago
SportsCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $421.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $758.7KEvent: San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
100.0¢
YES
0.1¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly50Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:294 trades$26.5K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 91%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$14.4K@ 44¢·umeax

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$115
6h
−$3.4K
tracked
$26.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-01 20:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins, scheduled for July 25 at 4:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Diego Padres" if the San Diego Padres win the game. This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xbca0…97052 linked markets · $469 gross
0x6b23…04a32 linked markets · $357 gross
0x0ac4…356f2 linked markets · $19 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $32.4K$4.1K · 5s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$115
6h$3.4K
24h+$11.2K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h49.9¢▲ above by 50.0pp
VWAP 7d49.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$165
90¢
$274
85¢
$688
80¢
$69
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.6K
55¢
$3.2K
50¢
$0
45¢
$22
40¢
$17.2K
35¢
$0
30¢
$6
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYSan Diego Padres (YES)$14.4K@ 44.0¢
umeax0x86d2…731d
🐋about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 2 Winner
0.1¢$669.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
15.5¢$635.1Kpriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox
48.5¢$613.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies
65.5¢$537.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
0.3¢$531.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: Dignitas vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner
100.0¢$432.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
100.0¢$429.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
99.5¢$404.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

umeaxSan Diego Padres$14.4K
BUY VWAP 44.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.