Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles

● quote 1168 min ago
SportsCloses: 6 daysLiquidity: $449.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $563.6KEvent: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles
99.9¢
YES
3.6¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:265 trades$17.5K trackedsource coverage 3%BUY/SELL known 92%
tape 1178 min agoofficial metadata 838 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBaltimore Orioles (NO)$2.1K@ 55¢·0xe98c…8792

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

NO pressure: −$2.3K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.3K
6h
−$8.1K
tracked
$17.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$1.3K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 1168 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 1178 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 838 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
resolved
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-07-31 23:05 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.mlb.com/
Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming MLB game between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for July 24 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 14h ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 14h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5268…135d2 linked markets · $5.2K gross
swisstony2 linked markets · $1.4K gross
RN12 linked markets · $1.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 11.0pp · near-book depth $3.6K$3.5K · 16s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h$2.3K
6h$8.1K
24h$8.1K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h55.7¢▲ above by 44.2pp
VWAP 7d55.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$3.7K
90¢
$77
85¢
$21
80¢
$134
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$1.0K
45¢
$3.2K
40¢
$5.9K
35¢
$270
30¢
$352
25¢
$490
20¢
$856
15¢
$41
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.