LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner

● quote 484 min ago
SportsCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $251.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.3MEvent: LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana
0.1¢
YES
99.9¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 50%
24h sample:240 trades$226.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 18%BUY/SELL known 92%
tape 618 min agoofficial metadata 483 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$38.0K@ 100¢·0x3ebd…b66a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$91.0K
tracked
$226.7K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 50% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • Executable quote is 484 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 618 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 483 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-25 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Invictus Gaming and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Nirvana, initially scheduled for July 25 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Invictus Gaming" if Invictus Gaming win Game 1 against Weibo Gaming. This market will resolve to "Weibo Gaming" if Weibo Gaming win Game 1 against Invictus Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xe907…cff63 linked markets · $57.8K gross
esportGG2 linked markets · $39.7K gross
0xa469…07822 linked markets · $26.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Weibo Gaming12h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Weibo Gaming12h ago
Outcome checks pending
DEADLINE POSITIONINGBUY Weibo Gaming@ 49.0¢13h ago
15m CONFIRMED +49.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Weibo Gaming@ 51.0¢13h ago
15m CONFIRMED +27.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: YES UP 6.3pp · near-book depth $93$5.2K · 6s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h$91.0K
24h$91.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h13.7¢▼ below by 13.6pp
VWAP 7d13.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$55
50¢
$45.9K
45¢
$5.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$2.5K
30¢
$3.6K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$6.0K
0¢
← now
$144.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLWeibo Gaming (NO)$20.9K@ 99.9¢0xba38…fb57🐋about 12 hours ago
SELLWeibo Gaming (NO)$24.9K@ 99.9¢0xa469…0782🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$21.6K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$38.0K@ 99.9¢0x3ebd…b66a🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$18.8K@ 99.0¢0x695d…0d7c🐋about 12 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$18.7K@ 50.0¢
esportGG0xf070…ac55
🐋about 13 hours ago
BUYWeibo Gaming (NO)$23.8K@ 50.0¢0xe907…cff6🐋about 13 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3ebd…b66aWeibo Gaming$38.0K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0xe907…cff6Weibo Gaming$26.8K
BUY VWAP 50.3¢·7 fills
Sisyphus.Weibo Gaming$21.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
0x695d…0d7cWeibo Gaming$18.8K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·1 fill
esportGGWeibo Gaming$18.7K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill
0x04b1…d224Weibo Gaming$10.8K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.