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Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote 566 min ago
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $273.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $201.7KEvent: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
99.9¢
YES
12.0¢
NO
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%
24h sample:29 trades$21.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 11%BUY/SELL known 94%
tape 571 min agoofficial metadata 564 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAnyones Legend (YES)$15.7K@ 49¢·0x3af1…d739

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$697
tracked
$21.6K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 566 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 571 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 564 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
proposed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-24 13:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL match between Anyone's Legend and LGD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 24 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Anyone's Legend" if Anyone's Legend wins 2 or more games than LGD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "LGD Gaming". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
esportGG2 linked markets · $27.1K gross
0x3ebd…b66a2 linked markets · $17.3K gross
0xf148…0b4f2 linked markets · $5.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY NO@ 52.0¢14h ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
Latest book event: NO DOWN 10.0pp · near-book depth $1 → $5 · 84s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$0
6h−$697
24h+$18.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h50.2¢▲ above by 49.7pp
VWAP 7d50.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$209
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$16
65¢
$1
60¢
$0
55¢
$2
50¢
$4.2K
45¢
$16.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYAnyones Legend (YES)$15.7K@ 49.0¢0x3af1…d739🐋—about 16 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x3af1…d739Anyones Legend$15.7K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.