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Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Politics→Settlement: YESLiquidity: $26.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $563.1KEvent: Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
100.0¢
YES payout
0.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$58.3K@ 98¢·0xe7b3…2b3a

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome YES. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2027-06-30 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 10d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 95.8¢10d ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.8pp1h INVALIDATED -10.1pp6h INVALIDATED -21.3pp24h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 95.8¢10d ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.8pp1h INVALIDATED -10.1pp6h INVALIDATED -21.3pp24h UNAVAILABLE
POSITION CHANGEBUY NO@ 97.3¢10d ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.5pp1h INVALIDATED -8.0pp6h INVALIDATED -17.4pp24h UNAVAILABLE
ACCUMULATIONBUY NO@ 96.7¢10d ago
15m STALLED -2.7pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h INVALIDATED -18.2pp24h UNAVAILABLE

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $5.2K
24hNO · $227.8K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h14.1¢▲ above by 85.9pp
VWAP 7d14.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$12.3K
90¢
$1.0K
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.7K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$19
60¢
$4.3K
55¢
$8.8K
50¢
$9.0K
45¢
$0
40¢
$2.9K
35¢
$6.2K
30¢
$0
25¢
$7.6K
20¢
$123
15¢
$4.6K
10¢
$3.4K
5¢
$26.0K
0¢
$216.4K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$48.0K@ 96.1¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$47.8K@ 95.5¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$10.6K@ 98.0¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$58.3K@ 98.0¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$13.9K@ 96.9¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago
BUYNO$13.3K@ 97.0¢0xe7b3…2b3a🐋—10 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.