Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?

● quote 134 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 5 monthsLiquidity: $20.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $110.4KEvent: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
31.5¢
YES
68.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly81Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%
24h sample:21 trades$47.1K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 174 min agoofficial metadata 137 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$29.1K@ 77¢·0xae7f…31c9

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: +$1.1K YES-equivalent flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.1K
6h
+$1.2K
tracked
$47.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 134 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 174 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 137 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5abf…555f2 linked markets · $5.8K gross
0x57b0…76f42 linked markets · $3.8K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $316 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 63.0¢17h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp6h CONFIRMED +3.0pp

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$1.1K
6h+$1.2K
24h$19.9K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current31.5¢
VWAP 24h26.8¢▲ above by 4.7pp
VWAP 7d26.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$1.4K
35¢
$2.6K
30¢
← now
$4.6K
25¢
$6.4K
20¢
$29.1K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
BUYNO$29.1K@ 77.3¢0xae7f…31c9🐋about 17 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
12.6¢$72.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BUY VWAP 77.3¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.