Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?

● quote 119 min ago
UncategorizedCloses: 21 daysLiquidity: $42.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $72.7KEvent: Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
13.0¢
YES
87.0¢
NO
0.6¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 70%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:35 trades$15.0K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 148 min agoofficial metadata 123 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO $2.4K·3 wallets·$2.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$5.0K@ 88¢·0xb4f2…e5fa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$4
6h
−$24
tracked
$15.0K

3 verified profitable wallets: −$2.4K YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.6¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 70% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 119 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 148 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 123 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
active
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-08-31 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x5abf…555f2 linked markets · $5.8K gross
0x57b0…76f42 linked markets · $3.8K gross
0x122c…fbed2 linked markets · $316 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h−$4
6h−$24
24h−$758

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current13.0¢
VWAP 24h13.3¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d12.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$1.1K
30¢
$0
25¢
$7
20¢
$1.7K
15¢
$59
10¢
← now
$6.9K
5¢
$5.2K
0¢
$1.1K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
31.5¢$110.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.