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Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?

● quote just now
Politics→Closes: almost 2 yearsLiquidity: $30.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $78.0KEvent: Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
40.3¢
YES
59.8¢
NO
6.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection14Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution47Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%
24h sample:13 trades$10.3K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$2.3K@ 50¢·0x84ee…c788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.4K
6h
−$1.1K
tracked
$10.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
6.3¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 6.3¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2028-06-30 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $1.4K
6hNO · $1.1K
24hNO · $7.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.3¢
VWAP 24h47.7¢▼ below by 7.5pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$1.5K
60¢
$0
55¢
$2.5K
50¢
$4.8K
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
← now
$2.8K
35¢
$305
30¢
$252
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.