Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?

● quote 75 min ago
PoliticsCloses: 2 daysLiquidity: $52.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $156.3KEvent: Who will Trump speak to in July?
42.2¢
YES
57.8¢
NO
2.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed YES-equivalent flowwallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution77Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 51%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$3.3K trackedsource coverage 2%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 114 min agoofficial metadata 75 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — MARKET STATUS RISK
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$333
6h
+$821
tracked
$3.3K

1 verified profitable wallet: −$40 YES-equivalent over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.2¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 51% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • Executable quote is 75 minutes old.
  • Observed tape is 114 minutes old.
  • Official market metadata is 75 minutes old.
  • Resolution is disputed; price and historical flow may not map to the final settlement path.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
disputed
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-07-31 23:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between July 1 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: YES UP 4.8pp · near-book depth $28$1.8K · 4s

Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Signed YES-equivalent flow: BUY YES and SELL NO are positive; SELL YES and BUY NO are negative. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1h+$333
6h+$821
24h+$1.0K

YES-equivalent VWAP

Volume-weighted YES-equivalent probability. NO fills are converted to 1 − NO price before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.2¢
VWAP 24h46.2¢▼ below by 4.0pp
VWAP 7d46.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES-equivalent Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$206
55¢
$495
50¢
$176
45¢
$433
40¢
← now
$1.5K
35¢
$386
30¢
$48
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.