Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?

● quote 1 min ago

Crypto→PricesCloses: 2 monthsLiquidity: $85.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $94.3KEvent: What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

8.5¢

YES

91.5¢

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution91Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:19 trades$82.3K trackedsource coverage 87%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 431 min agoofficial metadata 50s ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $82.3K net·4 wallets·$82.3K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$9.4K@ 93¢·0xf705…3ca7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

tracked

$82.3K

4 verified profitable wallets: NO · $82.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 431 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2027-01-01 05:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “Low” prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

oegdatam4 linked markets · $74.4K gross

DFV26 linked markets · $73.2K gross

0xf705…3ca76 linked markets · $47.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 93.0¢7h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hYES · $0

6hYES · $0

24hNO · $82.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current8.5¢

VWAP 24h7.3¢▲ above by 1.2pp

VWAP 7d7.3¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

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55¢