US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
12.5¢
YES
87.5¢
NO
83.0¢
Spread
conv0Conviction — % of recent trades going one direction (30 min window)whale0Whale Activity — large wallet trades $10k+ in last 24hedge0Edge Score — (Conviction + Whale) / 2, overall signal strengthmom0Momentum — trade frequency vs baseline (30 min window)
Price History
Orderbook YES/NO
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Market Analytics
LifecycleMarket stage. discovery = low volume early stage. climax = high volume + price near resolution (>85% or <15%). resolving = deadline within 24h. active = normal trading.climax
Position ConcentrationWallets with ≥15% share of 7-day volume. >40% = single player dominates = manipulation risk or thin liquidity. Multiple large holders may indicate coordinated activity.
Top Holders · 7d
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Accumulation
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Live Tapeupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Whale Trades$10,000+Δ now
No whale activity
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💡 Smart Wallets · 7d
No smart wallet activity