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Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 28 daysLiquidity: $95.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $191.4KEvent: MLB World Series Champion 2026
7.0¢
YES
93.0¢
NO
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution98Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:77 trades$56.5K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 38s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $45.1K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$45.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$19.7K@ 96¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$96
6h
+$6.7K
tracked
$56.5K

11 verified profitable wallets: NO · $45.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-31 23:55 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Outcome meaning

•If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

•If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
purplegatto4 linked markets · $28.3K gross
0x122c…fbed3 linked markets · $10.3K gross
iDARKenjoyer3 linked markets · $5.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 96.4¢15h ago
15m STALLED -0.2pp1h STALLED -1.8pp6h STALLED -1.7pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $96
6hYES · $6.7K
24hNO · $29.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current7.0¢
VWAP 24h4.2¢▲ above by 2.8pp
VWAP 7d4.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
← now
$1.6K
0¢
$71.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$19.7K@ 96.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62No$43.0K
BUY VWAP 96.0¢·9 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.