Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)

● quote 18s ago

Sports→BasketballCloses: 8 minutesLiquidity: $88.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $153.6KEvent: Nuggets vs. Pelicans

Indicative prices · 18s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

59.5¢

Nuggets

40.5¢

Pelicans

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly25Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:61 trades$64.7K trackedsource coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Nuggets · $62.2K net·3 wallets·$62.6K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNuggets$6.7K@ 62¢·bigbeliever

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$473

+$15

tracked

$64.7K

3 verified profitable wallets: Nuggets · $62.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Observed tape is 43 minutes old.
•Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-15 00:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 10 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Nuggets and Pelicans, originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Nuggets" if the Nuggets win the game by 10 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pelicans". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

bigbeliever6 linked markets · $118.1K gross

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh4 linked markets · $35.5K gross

HomeRunHazard5 linked markets · $11.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Nuggets@ 62.0¢10h ago

15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

LARGE FLOWBUY Nuggets@ 63.0¢14h ago

15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

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Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Nuggets; negative values favor Pelicans. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hPelicans · $473

6hNuggets · $15

24hNuggets · $61.1K

Nuggets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Nuggets price. Pelicans fills are converted to the complementary Nuggets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current59.5¢

VWAP 24h62.18¢▼ below by 2.7pp

VWAP 7d62.18¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Nuggets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

$64.2K

55¢

← now

$500

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0¢

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Nuggets vs. Pelicans

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Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5

52.5¢$123.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)

48.5¢$45.8Kpriority59Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5

53.5¢$17.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)

65.5¢$16.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)

64.5¢$10.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Nuggets vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5

48.5¢$7.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)

69.5¢$6.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bigbelieverNuggets$59.6K

BUY VWAP 62.25¢·23 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.