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Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)

● quote 251 min ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 14 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $11.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs

Indicative prices · 251 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

29.5¢
MOUZ
70.5¢
Spirit
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection47Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$4.7K trackedsource coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$2.5K@ 71¢·0xc9bf…81c0

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Spirit pressure: $2.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.2K
6h
−$4.7K
tracked
$4.7K

1 verified profitable wallet: Spirit · $4.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable quote is 251 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • •Less than 14h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Spirit or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-14 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than Spirit in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spirit".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Spirit and MOUZ in the BLAST Rivals Playoffs, initially scheduled for November 14, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ wins 2 or more maps than Spirit in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Spirit". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of November 14, 2026 at 3:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The match is considered to have begun once live play begins in its first map or game. Warmup rounds and knife rounds do not count as the start of the match. A round forced live because a team did not ready up or resume play within the allotted time does not count as the start of the match if that team forfeits before the next round begins. If the match begins and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, the match will count as completed. In that case, any remaining maps required to decide the match, including a map in progress or not yet started, will be counted as won by the winning team. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xc9bf…81c02 linked markets · $7.6K gross
0xd924…7bc22 linked markets · $45 gross
0x69fa…e2592 linked markets · $15 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor MOUZ; negative values favor Spirit. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $2.2K
6hSpirit · $4.7K
24hSpirit · $4.7K

MOUZ price VWAP

Volume-weighted MOUZ price. Spirit fills are converted to the complementary MOUZ probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current29.5¢
VWAP 24h28.53¢▲ above by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d28.53¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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MOUZ price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$15
25¢
← now
$4.7K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs
45.5¢$140.6Kpriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)
36.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)
31.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner
43.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
49.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.