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Spread: Senators (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→HockeyCloses: 1 minuteLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $34.9KEvent: Avalanche vs. Senators

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

30.5¢
Senators
69.5¢
Avalanche
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$21.8K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 62%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 107 min agoofficial metadata 8 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Avalanche · $20.1K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$20.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAvalanche$20.1K@ 70¢·keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$21.1K
tracked
$21.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: Avalanche · $20.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 107 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-13 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nhl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Senators" if the Senators win the game by 2 or more goals.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Avalanche".

Read full resolution rules

In the NHL game, scheduled for November 12 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Senators" if the Senators win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi2 linked markets · $25.4K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $22.7K gross
chubbytoro2 linked markets · $7.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Avalanche@ 70.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Senators; negative values favor Avalanche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSenators · $0
6hAvalanche · $21.1K
24hAvalanche · $20.5K

Senators price VWAP

Volume-weighted Senators price. Avalanche fills are converted to the complementary Senators probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current30.5¢
VWAP 24h30.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d30.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Senators price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
← now
$21.8K
25¢
$1
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAvalanche$20.1K@ 70.0¢
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh0x0d6a…aa98
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Avalanche vs. Senators
48.5¢$105.3Kpriority74Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
59.0¢$5.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 4.5
83.5¢$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
27.5¢$1.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 3.5
88.5¢$525priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 6.5
47.5¢$486priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Senators (-3.5)
8.0¢$136priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Avalanche vs. Senators: O/U 2.5
97.05¢$5priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

keeptheblueflagflyinghighAvalanche$20.1K
BUY VWAP 70.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.