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Spread: Lakers (-14.5)

● quote 35s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $27.1KEvent: Lakers vs. Bucks

Indicative prices · 35s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

47.5¢
Lakers
52.5¢
Bucks
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$11.9K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 36 min agoofficial metadata 13 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Bucks · $7.2K net·2 wallets·$7.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBucks$5.9K@ 52¢·keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Bucks pressure: $11.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$11.9K
6h
−$11.9K
tracked
$11.9K

2 verified profitable wallets: Bucks · $7.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 36 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bucks or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 15 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bucks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Lakers and Bucks, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Lakers" if the Lakers win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
JoeyAroyyOO4 linked markets · $21.9K gross
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh3 linked markets · $18.0K gross
bigbeliever2 linked markets · $16.4K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lakers; negative values favor Bucks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBucks · $11.9K
6hBucks · $11.9K
24hBucks · $11.9K

Lakers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lakers price. Bucks fills are converted to the complementary Lakers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h48.68¢▼ below by 1.2pp
VWAP 7d48.68¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lakers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$11.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Spread: Lakers (-11.5)
59.5¢$14.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5
46.0¢$13.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.