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Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

● quote 49s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $14.1KEvent: Thunder vs. Trail Blazers

Indicative prices · 49s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

37.5¢
Thunder
62.5¢
Trail Blazers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly21Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:6 trades$5.2K trackedsource coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 49 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Trail Blazers · $5.1K net·2 wallets·$5.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTrail Blazers$5.1K@ 56¢·VeryLucky888

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$33
6h
−$5.1K
tracked
$5.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Trail Blazers · $5.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 49 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Thunder and Trail Blazers, originally scheduled for Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Trail Blazers". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Friday, November 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
justwins2 linked markets · $40.4K gross
mooseborzoi9 linked markets · $28.0K gross
quavoo8 linked markets · $23.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thunder; negative values favor Trail Blazers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hThunder · $33
6hTrail Blazers · $5.1K
24hTrail Blazers · $5.0K

Thunder price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thunder price. Trail Blazers fills are converted to the complementary Thunder probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current37.5¢
VWAP 24h43.99¢▼ below by 6.5pp
VWAP 7d43.99¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thunder price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$72
40¢
$5.1K
35¢
← now
$33
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
43.5¢$278.0Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Thunder (-1.5)
40.5¢$31.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
51.5¢$27.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
54.5¢$22.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5
47.5¢$6.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 214.5
72.0¢$4.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5
44.5¢$4.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Trail Blazers (-23.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.