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BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $93.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $80.0KEvent: BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

18.5¢
Alexander Shevchenko
81.5¢
Casper Ruud
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets22Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution92Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:23 trades$53.4K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 67%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCasper Ruud$11.8K@ 81¢·stuttig

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Casper Ruud pressure: $1.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.4K
6h
−$3.0K
tracked
$53.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Casper Ruud · $3.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Casper Ruud or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 12:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Shevchenko and Casper Ruud in the BNP Paribas Nordic Open, originally scheduled for November 11, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Shevchenko' if Alexander Shevchenko advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Alexander Shevchenko. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Casper Ruud@ 83.0¢7h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Shevchenko; negative values favor Casper Ruud. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $1.4K
6hCasper Ruud · $3.0K
24hCasper Ruud · $48.8K

Alexander Shevchenko price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Shevchenko price. Casper Ruud fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Shevchenko probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current18.5¢
VWAP 24h18.65¢▼ below by 0.2pp
VWAP 7d18.65¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Shevchenko price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$8.1K
15¢
← now
$45.3K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCasper Ruud$10.2K@ 82.0¢
stuttig0xe4d7…ce04
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYCasper Ruud$11.8K@ 81.0¢
stuttig0xe4d7…ce04
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Casper Ruud (-1.5) vs Alexander Shevchenko (+1.5)
—$2.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shevchenko vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5
—$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shevchenko vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5
—$2priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Casper Ruud (-1.5) vs Alexander Shevchenko (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shevchenko vs. Ruud: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

stuttigCasper Ruud$39.2K
BUY VWAP 81.87¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.