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Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

● quote 244 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $89.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $246.6KEvent: Brisbane 3: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell

Indicative prices · 244 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
August Holmgren
0.1¢
Christopher OConnell
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets24Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution28Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 66%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:120 trades$154.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 62%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 249 min agoofficial metadata 243 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Christopher OConnell · $23.1K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$95.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAugust Holmgren$59.0K@ 100¢·Woaifacai

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$5.6K
tracked
$154.0K

11 verified profitable wallets: Christopher OConnell · $23.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 66% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +38.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 244 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 249 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 243 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-18 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between August Holmgren and Christopher O'Connell in the Brisbane 3, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 11:30PM ET. This market will resolve to 'August Holmgren' if August Holmgren advances against Christopher O'Connell. This market will resolve to 'Christopher O'Connell' if Christopher O'Connell advances against August Holmgren. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x0611…1a183 linked markets · $30 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY August Holmgren5h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY August Holmgren@ 62.0¢5h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: August Holmgren UP 6.5pp · near-book depth $914 → $7.9K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor August Holmgren; negative values favor Christopher OConnell. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAugust Holmgren · $0
6hAugust Holmgren · $5.6K
24hAugust Holmgren · $5.2K

August Holmgren price VWAP

Volume-weighted August Holmgren price. Christopher OConnell fills are converted to the complementary August Holmgren probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h80.56¢▲ above by 19.3pp
VWAP 7d80.56¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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August Holmgren price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$70.7K
90¢
$27
85¢
$7.2K
80¢
$3.3K
75¢
$7.9K
70¢
$7.1K
65¢
$699
60¢
$37.6K
55¢
$4.9K
50¢
$12.1K
45¢
$12
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$876
30¢
$364
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAugust Holmgren$59.0K@ 99.9¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYAugust Holmgren$35.7K@ 60.55¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 5 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Christopher O'Connell (-1.5) vs August Holmgren (+1.5)
—$363priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 22.5
—$279priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 23.5
—$74priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Holmgren vs. O'Connell: Match O/U 21.5
—$15priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
August Holmgren vs. Christopher O'Connell: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: August Holmgren vs Christopher O'Connell
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B
1.25¢$2.6Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)
0.05¢$957.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WoaifacaiAugust Holmgren$35.7K
BUY VWAP 60.55¢·1 fill
MadridTimeAugust Holmgren$16.3K
BUY VWAP 79.61¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.