Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?

● quote just now

Closes: 31 minutesLiquidity: $2.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $65.6KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets November 9 - November 11, 2026?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

98.5¢

YES

1.5¢

0.4¢

Spread

anomaly38Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution72Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:33 trades$654 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $18 net·2 wallets·$22 gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$1.5K@ 99¢·AndreaPirlo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$20

+$52

tracked

$654

2 verified profitable wallets: YES · $18 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
•Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
•Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
•Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

Event constraint

Mutually exclusive

Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 9 12:00 PM ET to November 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

AndreaPirlo2 linked markets · $1.5K gross

PredictionYogi2 linked markets · $1.2K gross

upont2 linked markets · $1.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hNO · $20

6hYES · $52

24hYES · $77

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current98.5¢

VWAP 24h71.0¢▲ above by 27.5pp

VWAP 7d22.75¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$20

90¢

85¢

$11

80¢

$16

75¢

70¢

$245

65¢

$313

60¢

$10

55¢

$36

50¢

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

$1.5K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.