Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Decision read
Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation
No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.
No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.
Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.
Data confidence 55% · priority 0
Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.
- •Observed tape is 605 minutes old.
- •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.
Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.
Resolution & market truth
Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis
•This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Read full resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.
Evidence receipts
Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible
Outcome Price History
Signals Trend
Market Analytics
Signed Order Flow
YES price VWAP
Largest holders
YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d
VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC
Observed net position building
Related Markets · same event first, then category
Observed whale buys · 7d
Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome
Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.