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Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

● quote 23s ago
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $14.7KEvent: Thunder vs. Grizzlies

Indicative prices · 23s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Thunder
51.5¢
Grizzlies
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection98Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$6.4K trackedsource coverage 61%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 30 min agoofficial metadata 5 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYThunder$4.7K@ 49¢·ComingBack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Thunder pressure: $6.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.2K
6h
+$6.3K
tracked
$6.4K

1 verified profitable wallet: Thunder · $55 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 30 minutes old.
  • •Less than 9h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Thunder or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 01:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 5 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game between Thunder and Grizzlies, originally scheduled for Friday, November 6, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): This market will resolve to "Thunder" if the Thunder win the game by 5 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
mooseborzoi5 linked markets · $40.8K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $24.4K gross
HomeRunHazard7 linked markets · $11.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thunder; negative values favor Grizzlies. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hThunder · $6.2K
6hThunder · $6.3K
24hThunder · $6.3K

Thunder price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thunder price. Grizzlies fills are converted to the complementary Thunder probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h49.14¢▼ below by 0.6pp
VWAP 7d49.14¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Thunder price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$6.4K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Thunder vs. Grizzlies
59.5¢$133.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)
52.5¢$56.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
55.5¢$14.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 224.5
47.5¢$11.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-24.5)
—$0priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Thunder (-29.5)
—$0priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Thunder vs. Grizzlies: O/U 252.5
—$0priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Grizzlies (-22.5)
—$0priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.