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Set 1 Winner: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $3.9KEvent: Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel

Polymarket indicative prices · 4 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Jurij Rodionov
0.05¢
Toby Samuel
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%
24h sample:1 trades$1.9K trackedsource coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLJurij Rodionov$1.9K@ 100¢·0x382b…6403

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Toby Samuel pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.9K
6h
−$1.9K
tracked
$1.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Toby Samuel or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 14:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Jurij Rodionov” if Jurij Rodionov wins the first set. It will resolve to “Toby Samuel” if Toby Samuel wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jurij Rodionov and Toby Samuel in the Bratislava 2, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Jurij Rodionov” if Jurij Rodionov wins the first set. It will resolve to “Toby Samuel” if Toby Samuel wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x6845…f8642 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jurij Rodionov; negative values favor Toby Samuel. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hToby Samuel · $1.9K
6hToby Samuel · $1.9K
24hToby Samuel · $1.9K

Jurij Rodionov price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jurij Rodionov price. Toby Samuel fills are converted to the complementary Jurij Rodionov probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h99.9¢▲ above by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d99.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jurij Rodionov price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$1.9K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Bratislava 2: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel
91.5¢$61.6Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Toby Samuel (-1.5) vs Jurij Rodionov (+1.5)
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Rodionov vs. Samuel: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
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Game Spread: Toby Samuel (-1.5) vs Jurij Rodionov (+1.5)
50.0¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Jurij Rodionov vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 2.5
50.0¢$8priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Jurij Rodionov vs Toby Samuel
50.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Samuel: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
0.05¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rodionov vs. Samuel: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
99.95¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.