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Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $328.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $266.9KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

49.5¢
Matteo Berrettini
50.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets96Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:95 trades$109.8K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $36.6K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$38.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$15.7K@ 84¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Matteo Berrettini SETUP
What the tape says

Matteo Berrettini pressure: $6.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.5K
6h
−$60.6K
tracked
$109.8K

5 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $36.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 67

Since latest large flow: -33.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Matteo Berrettini or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 18:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Berrettini' if Matteo Berrettini advances against Carlos Alcaraz. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Matteo Berrettini. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
gotozer03 linked markets · $501 gross
noosh12 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 84.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -34.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 84.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -3.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 80.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: Carlos Alcaraz DOWN 7.5pp · near-book depth $269 → $5.4K · 10s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Matteo Berrettini; negative values favor Carlos Alcaraz. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatteo Berrettini · $6.5K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $60.6K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $88.5K

Matteo Berrettini price VWAP

Volume-weighted Matteo Berrettini price. Carlos Alcaraz fills are converted to the complementary Matteo Berrettini probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h20.28¢▲ above by 29.2pp
VWAP 7d20.28¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Matteo Berrettini price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$5.6K
45¢
← now
$545
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$111
20¢
$53.4K
15¢
$50.1K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$15.7K@ 84.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$15.5K@ 83.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Berrettini vs. Alcaraz: Match O/U 21.5
49.5¢$7.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-4.5) vs Matteo Berrettini (+4.5)
—$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Berrettini vs. Alcaraz: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Berrettini vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Berrettini vs. Alcaraz: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Matteo Berrettini vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Carlos Alcaraz$33.6K
BUY VWAP 83.43¢·3 fills
dv-pmCarlos Alcaraz$19.8K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.