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Set 2 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $6.0KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche

Polymarket indicative prices · 1 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

92.5¢
Lorenzo Musetti
7.5¢
Luca Van Assche
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection100Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 55%
24h sample:1 trades$1.2K trackedsource coverage 21%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Van Assche$1.2K@ 30¢·SeventyPercentPlus

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Luca Van Assche pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$1.2K
6h
−$1.2K
tracked
$1.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 55% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Luca Van Assche or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins set 2. It will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Musetti and Luca Van Assche in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Lorenzo Musetti” if Lorenzo Musetti wins set 2. It will resolve to “Luca Van Assche” if Luca Van Assche wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x93dc…37282 linked markets · $30 gross
0x45b8…3c282 linked markets · $5 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Musetti; negative values favor Luca Van Assche. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLuca Van Assche · $1.2K
6hLuca Van Assche · $1.2K
24hLuca Van Assche · $1.2K

Lorenzo Musetti price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Musetti price. Luca Van Assche fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Musetti probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h70.14¢▲ above by 22.4pp
VWAP 7d70.14¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Musetti price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$1.2K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 70¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
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Game Spread: Lorenzo Musetti (-3.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+3.5)
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Set 1 Winner: Lorenzo Musetti vs Luca Van Assche
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Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 22.5
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Set Handicap: Lorenzo Musetti (-1.5) vs Luca Van Assche (+1.5)
4.65¢$1.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 23.5
50.0¢$119priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Lorenzo Musetti vs. Luca Van Assche: Total Sets O/U 2.5
91.5¢$87priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Musetti vs. Assche: Match O/U 21.5
50.0¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.