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Rolex Paris Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech

● quote just now
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $109.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $232.2KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Arthur Rinderknech

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

0.05¢
Mattia Bellucci
99.95¢
Arthur Rinderknech
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection9Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets54Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:71 trades$106.0K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 14 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Arthur Rinderknech · $9.6K net·7 wallets·$17.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLArthur Rinderknech$20.2K@ 89¢·Luzzzer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Mattia Bellucci pressure: $9.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$9.2K
6h
+$13.0K
tracked
$106.0K

7 verified profitable wallets: Arthur Rinderknech · $9.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 14 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Mattia Bellucci or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-11 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mattia Bellucci and Arthur Rinderknech in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mattia Bellucci' if Mattia Bellucci advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Mattia Bellucci. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $104 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Mattia Bellucci DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $651 → $3.7K · 3s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mattia Bellucci; negative values favor Arthur Rinderknech. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMattia Bellucci · $9.2K
6hMattia Bellucci · $13.0K
24hMattia Bellucci · $14.0K

Mattia Bellucci price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mattia Bellucci price. Arthur Rinderknech fills are converted to the complementary Mattia Bellucci probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.05¢
VWAP 24h26.53¢▼ below by 26.5pp
VWAP 7d26.53¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mattia Bellucci price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.4K
55¢
$22.7K
50¢
$14.9K
45¢
$2.2K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$4.3K
25¢
$488
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$20.2K
5¢
$18.7K
0¢
← now
$20.2K

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLArthur Rinderknech$20.2K@ 89.45¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$11.0K@ 48.71¢
Luzzzer0x2180…08f0
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Game Spread: Mattia Bellucci (-1.5) vs Arthur Rinderknech (+1.5)
—$3.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Mattia Bellucci vs. Arthur Rinderknech: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$75priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 22.5
—$54priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Arthur Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mattia Bellucci (+1.5)
—$32priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Rinderknech: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Rinderknech: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Rinderknech: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Bellucci vs. Rinderknech: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

LuzzzerArthur Rinderknech$11.0K
BUY VWAP 48.71¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.