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Set 2 Winner: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

● quote 112 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $13.6KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Casper Ruud vs Rafael Jodar

Indicative prices · 112 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

—
Casper Ruud
—
Rafael Jodar
—
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:13 trades$6.0K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 139 min agoofficial metadata 113 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCasper Ruud$3.8K@ 100¢·CoinTrick

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$4.8K
tracked
$6.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: Rafael Jodar · $26 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Indicative price is unavailable.
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Executable quote is 112 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 139 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-10 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Casper Ruud” if Casper Ruud wins set 2. It will resolve to “Rafael Jodar” if Rafael Jodar wins set 2.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Rafael Jodar in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 3, 2026 at 2:30PM ET. This market will resolve to “Casper Ruud” if Casper Ruud wins set 2. It will resolve to “Rafael Jodar” if Rafael Jodar wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh2 linked markets · $3.5K gross
Gasplant2 linked markets · $63 gross
yeagerist2 linked markets · $56 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Casper Ruud; negative values favor Rafael Jodar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCasper Ruud · $0
6hCasper Ruud · $4.8K
24hCasper Ruud · $4.8K

Casper Ruud price VWAP

Volume-weighted Casper Ruud price. Rafael Jodar fills are converted to the complementary Casper Ruud probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current—
VWAP 24h84.82¢
VWAP 7d84.82¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Casper Ruud price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$4.4K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$258
40¢
$1.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.