PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→Culture→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $2.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $79.6KEvent: Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

2.55¢
YES
97.45¢
NO
0.7¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection37Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution66Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:33 trades$742 trackedsource coverage 1%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $43 net·6 wallets·$116 gross

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$272
6h
−$415
tracked
$742

6 verified profitable wallets: NO · $43 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.7¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Tracked source coverage is only 1%.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-07 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmusk
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from November 5 12:00 PM ET to November 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
tianjiyuyunzhilu2 linked markets · $17.9K gross
ElonSimp2 linked markets · $9.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $272
6hNO · $415
24hNO · $534

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current2.55¢
VWAP 24h11.96¢▼ below by 9.4pp
VWAP 7d11.96¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$165
15¢
$181
10¢
$47
5¢
$128
0¢
← now
$221

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?
0.05¢$363.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.15¢$771.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.05¢$667.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.15¢$504.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.65¢$480.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1.25¢$406.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1.15¢$378.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
0.25¢$290.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.