Spread: Hawks (-8.5)

● quote 22s ago

Sports→BasketballCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $39.8KEvent: Hawks vs. Pacers

Indicative prices · 22s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

54.5¢

Hawks

45.5¢

Pacers

1.0¢

Spread

anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 58%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot

24h sample:1 trades$12.9K tracked100% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 102 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPacers$12.9K@ 46¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN

What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

−$12.9K

tracked

$12.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Pacers · $12.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?

1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 58% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence

•Only 1 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
•Observed tape is 102 minutes old.
•Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

OPEN

Trading

Orders accepted

Deadline

2026-11-03 00:30 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pacers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pacers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for November 2 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Hawks" if the Hawks win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Pacers". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Pacers". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow

ropetard6 linked markets · $137.8K gross

quavoo8 linked markets · $81.6K gross

SunlineTicker7 linked markets · $36.9K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes

Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hawks; negative values favor Pacers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hHawks · $0

6hPacers · $12.9K

24hPacers · $12.9K

Hawks price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hawks price. Pacers fills are converted to the complementary Hawks probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current54.5¢

VWAP 24h54.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp

VWAP 7d54.0¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hawks price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

90¢

85¢

80¢

75¢

70¢

65¢

60¢

55¢

50¢

← now

$12.9K

45¢

40¢

35¢

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago

Loading trades…

🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now

BUYPacers$12.9K@ 46.0¢

ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319

🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5

45.5¢$22.4Kpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Pacers$12.9K

BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.