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Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok

● quote 131 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $96.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $389.0KEvent: Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok

Indicative prices · 131 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Ian Luca Vertberger
2.0¢
Denis Klok
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 61%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:61 trades$170.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 159 min agoofficial metadata 129 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Denis Klok · $11.3K net·7 wallets·$11.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYIan Luca Vertberger$18.3K@ 91¢·crazyoddslover

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$93.9K
tracked
$170.8K

7 verified profitable wallets: Denis Klok · $11.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 61% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 131 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 159 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 129 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-08 14:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Ian Luca Vertberger and Denis Klok in the Villa Maria, Argentina, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 9:10AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ian Luca Vertberger' if Ian Luca Vertberger advances against Denis Klok. This market will resolve to 'Denis Klok' if Denis Klok advances against Ian Luca Vertberger. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Ian Luca Vertberger@ 94.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
ANTI CHASEBUY Ian Luca Vertberger3h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Ian Luca Vertberger@ 78.0¢3h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Ian Luca Vertberger DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $20.7K → $1.2K · 36s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Ian Luca Vertberger; negative values favor Denis Klok. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hIan Luca Vertberger · $0
6hIan Luca Vertberger · $93.9K
24hIan Luca Vertberger · $93.9K

Ian Luca Vertberger price VWAP

Volume-weighted Ian Luca Vertberger price. Denis Klok fills are converted to the complementary Ian Luca Vertberger probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h75.19¢▲ above by 24.7pp
VWAP 7d75.19¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Ian Luca Vertberger price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$21.1K
90¢
$58.1K
85¢
$33
80¢
$0
75¢
$4.5K
70¢
$17.8K
65¢
$0
60¢
$14.1K
55¢
$13.2K
50¢
$27.8K
45¢
$14.0K
40¢
$115
35¢
$8
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLIan Luca Vertberger$16.1K@ 99.9¢
TennisAce10xa3e1…2b3b
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYIan Luca Vertberger$10.3K@ 94.75¢
crazyoddslover0x49f2…506a
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYIan Luca Vertberger$14.4K@ 91.65¢
crazyoddslover0x49f2…506a
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYIan Luca Vertberger$18.3K@ 90.71¢
crazyoddslover0x49f2…506a
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYIan Luca Vertberger$10.2K@ 63.66¢
crazyoddslover0x49f2…506a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set Handicap: Denis Klok (-1.5) vs Ian Luca Vertberger (+1.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vertberger vs. Klok: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vertberger vs. Klok: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis Klok
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Ian Luca Vertberger vs. Denis Klok: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vertberger vs. Klok: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Vertberger vs. Klok: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

crazyoddsloverIan Luca Vertberger$73.8K
BUY VWAP 83.36¢·9 fills
pau1og1Ian Luca Vertberger$38.5K
BUY VWAP 50.84¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.