PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 9 daysLiquidity: $105.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $248.6KEvent: Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

24.5¢
YES
75.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 68%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:12 trades$183.8K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 74%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 327 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $1.3K net·3 wallets·$3.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$182.5K@ 77¢·Euan

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.2K
tracked
$183.8K

3 verified profitable wallets: NO · $1.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 68% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 327 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

•If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

Read full resolution rules

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 80.0¢13h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $1.2K
24hNO · $181.2K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current24.5¢
VWAP 24h23.01¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d22.91¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$24.1K
25¢
$10.8K
20¢
← now
$188.5K
15¢
$3.6K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$182.5K@ 77.0¢
Euan0xdd22…9ef1
🐋—about 13 hours ago
BUYNO$18.7K@ 69.95¢
wan1230xde7b…5f4b
🐋—21 days ago
BUYNO$12.0K@ 72.22¢
dwarf1230x8dc9…434f
🐋—about 1 month ago
SELLNO$14.3K@ 70.41¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—about 1 month ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
8.5¢$1.1Mpriority33Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
91.5¢$980.9Kpriority49Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0.05¢$886.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
25.5¢$604.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
26.5¢$418.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4.25¢$340.0Kpriority46Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
0.8¢$338.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0.65¢$301.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

EuanNo$182.5K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.