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Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone

● quote 353 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $560.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $390.0KEvent: Rolex Paris Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone

Indicative prices · 353 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Luca Van Assche
5.0¢
Mariano Navone
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:159 trades$191.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 356 min agoofficial metadata 356 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Luca Van Assche · $25.4K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$59.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Van Assche$26.6K@ 90¢·999585

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$20.5K
tracked
$191.8K

9 verified profitable wallets: Luca Van Assche · $25.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 353 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 356 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 356 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-09 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Mariano Navone in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van Assche' if Luca Van Assche advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Luca Van Assche. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xefae…9d8e2 linked markets · $10 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Van Assche@ 90.0¢7h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE6h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Van Assche@ 58.0¢12h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp6h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Mariano Navone DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $10.8K → $1.8K · 30s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Luca Van Assche; negative values favor Mariano Navone. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLuca Van Assche · $0
6hMariano Navone · $20.5K
24hLuca Van Assche · $86.0K

Luca Van Assche price VWAP

Volume-weighted Luca Van Assche price. Mariano Navone fills are converted to the complementary Luca Van Assche probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h81.36¢▲ above by 18.5pp
VWAP 7d81.36¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Luca Van Assche price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$34.3K
90¢
$28.7K
85¢
$40.1K
80¢
$10.5K
75¢
$30.7K
70¢
$3.3K
65¢
$1.0K
60¢
$15.3K
55¢
$27.9K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLLuca Van Assche$18.0K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 6 hours ago
SELLLuca Van Assche$12.7K@ 99.9¢
Woaifacai0x9b89…4244
🐋—about 6 hours ago
BUYLuca Van Assche$26.6K@ 90.0¢
9995850x88a6…7e77
🐋—about 7 hours ago
BUYLuca Van Assche$13.8K@ 76.88¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Set 2 Winner: Luca Van Assche vs Mariano Navone
—$986priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Navone: Match O/U 23.5
—$801priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Navone: Match O/U 21.5
58.0¢$531priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Luca Van Assche vs. Mariano Navone: Total Sets O/U 2.5
44.0¢$71priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Luca Van Assche (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)
53.5¢$30priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Luca Van Assche (-1.5) vs Mariano Navone (+1.5)
—$14priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Navone: Match O/U 22.5
51.0¢$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Assche vs. Navone: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesLuca Van Assche$40.9K
BUY VWAP 84.88¢·15 fills
999585Luca Van Assche$26.6K
BUY VWAP 90.0¢·1 fill
ferrariChampions2026Luca Van Assche$21.3K
BUY VWAP 58.22¢·6 fills
0x076d…8d4cLuca Van Assche$14.5K
BUY VWAP 60.16¢·5 fills
kkookkooLuca Van Assche$13.8K
BUY VWAP 76.88¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.