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Set 1 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $0Official 24h Vol: $798Event: Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev

Polymarket indicative prices · 6 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.95¢
Cameron Norrie
0.05¢
Daniil Medvedev
—
Spread
anomaly40Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution0Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$129 trackedsource coverage 16%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 8 min agoofficial metadata 6 min ago

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$39
6h
−$39
tracked
$129

1 verified profitable wallet: Cameron Norrie · $16 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
—displayed spread

A two-sided quote is unavailable; check each available bid/ask below.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Two-sided executable spread is unavailable.
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote freshness is unavailable.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to “Cameron Norrie” if Cameron Norrie wins the first set. It will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins the first set.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Cameron Norrie” if Cameron Norrie wins the first set. It will resolve to “Daniil Medvedev” if Daniil Medvedev wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or play has not begun by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
neutralwave232 linked markets · $218 gross
0xe1f4…f5a02 linked markets · $2 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.discovery

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cameron Norrie; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $39
6hDaniil Medvedev · $39
24hDaniil Medvedev · $39

Cameron Norrie price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cameron Norrie price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Cameron Norrie probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.95¢
VWAP 24h80.0¢▲ above by 20.0pp
VWAP 7d80.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cameron Norrie price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$84
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$16
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$29
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Erste Bank Open: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
46.5¢$234.6Kpriority68Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+1.5)
0.5¢$3.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Daniil Medvedev (-4.5) vs Cameron Norrie (+4.5)
15.0¢$669priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 22.5
42.0¢$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
0.05¢$50priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Norrie vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5
79.5¢$46priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Cameron Norrie vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
69.0¢$14priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev
32.0¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.