Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 4 daysLiquidity: $236.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $203.6KEvent: Nebraska Senate Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

23.5¢
YES
76.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100direction15wallets54execution86priority59data 91%💡 17 smart
24h sample:56 trades$127.3K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 63%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $30.3K net·17 wallets(1🐋)·$83.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$22.7K@ 73¢·dubdubdub2

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW NO SETUP
What the tape says

NO pressure: $18.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$18.8K
6h
−$73.9K
tracked
$127.3K

17 verified profitable wallets: NO · $30.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 91% · priority 59

Since latest large flow: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from NO or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
dubdubdub22 linked markets · $190.2K gross
Flipadelphia2 linked markets · $81.4K gross
Jerry88082 linked markets · $16.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 76.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -4.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 70.0¢11h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY NO@ 74.0¢9d ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp24h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

1hNO · $18.8K
6hNO · $73.9K
24hNO · $92.6K

YES price VWAP

Current23.5¢
VWAP 24h28.16¢▼ below by 4.7pp
VWAP 7d28.25¢
Largest observed holders

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$73.7K
25¢
$115.8K
20¢
← now
$21.1K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dΔ now
SELLYES$17.3K@ 23.11¢
Flipadelphia0x4488…e319
🐋—6 minutes ago
BUYNO$22.7K@ 73.0¢
dubdubdub20x9c99…7250
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNO$16.4K@ 70.0¢
dubdubdub20x9c99…7250
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYNO$22.2K@ 73.0¢
aenews20x44c1…ebc1
🐋—9 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

dubdubdub2No$46.9K
BUY VWAP 71.40¢·4 fills
FlipadelphiaYes$16.7K
BUY VWAP 30.93¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.