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Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov

● quote 198 min ago
Sports→TennisCloses: 7 daysLiquidity: $111.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $398.2KEvent: Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov

Indicative prices · 198 min ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

99.9¢
Liam Draxl
0.1¢
Daniil Ostapenkov
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution30Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 54%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$56.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 14%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 218 min agoofficial metadata 199 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Ostapenkov · $19.1K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$27.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Ostapenkov$14.6K@ 8¢·keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$2.5K
tracked
$56.8K

7 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Ostapenkov · $19.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 54% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable quote is 198 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 218 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 199 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-05 15:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Liam Draxl and Daniil Ostapenkov in the Sioux Falls, originally scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Liam Draxl' if Liam Draxl advances against Daniil Ostapenkov. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Ostapenkov' if Daniil Ostapenkov advances against Liam Draxl. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liam Draxl; negative values favor Daniil Ostapenkov. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiam Draxl · $0
6hDaniil Ostapenkov · $2.5K
24hDaniil Ostapenkov · $2.5K

Liam Draxl price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liam Draxl price. Daniil Ostapenkov fills are converted to the complementary Liam Draxl probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h89.02¢▲ above by 10.9pp
VWAP 7d89.02¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liam Draxl price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$10.0K
90¢
$23.6K
85¢
$10
80¢
$17.9K
75¢
$836
70¢
$4.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 90¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Ostapenkov$14.6K@ 7.96¢
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh0x0d6a…aa98
🐋—about 4 hours ago
BUYLiam Draxl$14.2K@ 84.64¢
tenniz0xeae1…a67b
🐋—about 4 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Draxl vs. Ostapenkov: Match O/U 22.5
—$231priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set Handicap: Liam Draxl (-1.5) vs Daniil Ostapenkov (+1.5)
—$101priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Liam Draxl vs. Daniil Ostapenkov: Total Sets O/U 2.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Draxl vs. Ostapenkov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 1 Winner: Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Draxl vs. Ostapenkov: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Draxl vs. Ostapenkov: Match O/U 23.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

keeptheblueflagflyinghighDaniil Ostapenkov$23.2K
BUY VWAP 7.60¢·4 fills
tennizLiam Draxl$14.2K
BUY VWAP 84.64¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.