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Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

● quote just now
Sports→BasketballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $240.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $307.5KEvent: Rockets vs. Bucks

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

48.5¢
Rockets
51.5¢
Bucks
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets90Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:66 trades$131.6K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Rockets · $32.7K net·4 wallets(1🐋)·$36.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRockets$22.5K@ 49¢·0xb4f9…c9a7

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Bucks pressure: $6.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$6.1K
6h
+$13.3K
tracked
$131.6K

4 verified profitable wallets: Rockets · $32.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Bucks or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-29 00:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Rockets" if the Rockets win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bucks".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 28 at 8:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Rockets" if the Rockets win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve to "Bucks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo6 linked markets · $23.7K gross
0xbc43…96d34 linked markets · $21.1K gross
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $19.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Rockets@ 49.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Bucks@ 53.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp6h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Rockets; negative values favor Bucks. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBucks · $6.1K
6hRockets · $13.3K
24hRockets · $31.1K

Rockets price VWAP

Volume-weighted Rockets price. Bucks fills are converted to the complementary Rockets probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Rockets price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
← now
$127.6K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYRockets$22.5K@ 49.0¢0xb4f9…c9a7🐋—about 5 hours ago
BUYRockets$10.8K@ 48.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYBucks$21.0K@ 52.0¢
monkeymashingkeyboard0x684b…8409
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Rockets vs. Bucks
75.5¢$276.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 226.5
49.5¢$41.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
55.5¢$39.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Rockets (-7.5)
53.5¢$31.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)
57.5¢$22.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5
45.5¢$19.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)
45.5¢$15.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Rockets vs. Bucks: O/U 222.5
59.5¢$13.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

monkeymashingkeyboardBucks$30.7K
BUY VWAP 51.73¢·3 fills
0xb4f9…c9a7Rockets$26.2K
BUY VWAP 48.93¢·3 fills
cay520Rockets$14.1K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·4 fills
0xbc43…96d3Rockets$10.8K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.