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Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: about 12 hoursLiquidity: $97.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $105.8KEvent: Georgia Senate Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

96.85¢
YES
3.15¢
NO
0.3¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection48Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets72Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 72%💡 9 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:32 trades$29.7K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $33.5K net·9 wallets(1🐋)·$41.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$10.1K@ 98¢·SAPolitcsSeer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

YES pressure: $14.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$14.1K
6h
+$24.2K
tracked
$29.7K

9 verified profitable wallets: YES · $33.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.3¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 72% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 12h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from YES or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Georgia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 96.2¢7d ago
15m STALLED -0.7pp1h STALLED -0.7pp6h STALLED -0.8pp24h STALLED -0.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $14.1K
6hYES · $24.2K
24hYES · $21.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current96.85¢
VWAP 24h97.54¢▼ below by 0.7pp
VWAP 7d97.09¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$102.1K
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.1K@ 97.74¢
SAPolitcsSeer0xa30e…49d5
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SAPolitcsSeerYes$23.0K
BUY VWAP 97.61¢·4 fills
JerryFloydYes$20.0K
BUY VWAP 96.30¢·8 fills
danypotterYes$11.9K
BUY VWAP 96.61¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.