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Spread: Lions (-2.5)

● quote 21s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 15 hoursLiquidity: $280.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $121.4KEvent: Patriots vs. Lions

Indicative prices · 21s ago · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

51.5¢
Lions
48.5¢
Patriots
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection24Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 63%
24h sample:4 trades$62.4K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 57 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLions$45.8K@ 53¢·Pwaddler

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Patriots pressure: $15.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$15.0K
6h
+$29.4K
tracked
$62.4K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 63% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 57 minutes old.
  • •Less than 15h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Patriots or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-15 14:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 3 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Patriots and Lions, scheduled for November 15 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Lions" if the Lions win the game by 3 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Patriots". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Pwaddler2 linked markets · $55.4K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $2.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Lions@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -2.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lions; negative values favor Patriots. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPatriots · $15.0K
6hLions · $29.4K
24hLions · $29.2K

Lions price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lions price. Patriots fills are converted to the complementary Lions probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h52.49¢▼ below by 1.0pp
VWAP 7d52.51¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lions price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$84.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPatriots$15.0K@ 49.0¢0xd53f…6840🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLions$45.8K@ 53.0¢
Pwaddler0x1d1a…0df6
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 50.5
47.5¢$50.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Lions
42.5¢$26.5Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
22.5¢$137priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-4.5)
40.0¢$35priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 48.5
54.5¢$25priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-7.5)
28.5¢$20priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-3.5)
43.5¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 44.5
65.5¢$10priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

PwaddlerLions$45.8K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill
0xd53f…6840Patriots$16.4K
BUY VWAP 48.91¢·2 fills
Multicoloured-SerfPatriots$11.1K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·2 fills
mooseborzoiPatriots$10.1K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.