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Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

● quote just now
Politics→ElectionsCloses: 5 daysLiquidity: $226.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $203.4KEvent: Texas Governor Election Winner

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

61.8¢
YES
38.2¢
NO
0.4¢
Spread
anomaly6Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets8Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution97Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:41 trades$101.0K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 50%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 26s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:YES · $7.5K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$25.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$41.2K@ 63¢·Rafifa

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$68
6h
+$2.1K
tracked
$101.0K

13 verified profitable wallets: YES · $7.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.4¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-11-04 04:59 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: Not supplied by the market
Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
operationcastle2 linked markets · $16.8K gross
dromedaryy2 linked markets · $11.2K gross
lpgb2 linked markets · $6.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY YES@ 65.9¢18h ago
15m STALLED -1.3pp1h STALLED -1.6pp6h STALLED -1.6pp
LARGE FLOWBUY YES@ 64.4¢18h ago
15m STALLED +0.2pp1h STALLED -0.1pp6h STALLED -0.1pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNO · $68
6hYES · $2.1K
24hYES · $64.5K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current61.8¢
VWAP 24h63.89¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d65.63¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$13.8K
75¢
$23.8K
70¢
$18.6K
65¢
$92.9K
60¢
← now
$76.7K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$10.1K@ 65.84¢
StarryPath0x55b4…80ea
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$41.2K@ 63.44¢
Rafifa0x8aa7…0d94
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYYES$14.3K@ 65.0¢
Rafifa0x8aa7…0d94
🐋—about 18 hours ago
BUYNO$14.8K@ 32.01¢
operationcastle0xd3a6…fd55
🐋—4 days ago
BUYYES$11.4K@ 75.78¢
nfadyor0xd1e6…0331
🐋—about 1 month ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

RafifaYes$62.5K
BUY VWAP 64.11¢·3 fills
operationcastleNo$14.8K
BUY VWAP 32.01¢·1 fill
StarryPathYes$10.1K
BUY VWAP 65.84¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.