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Erste Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur

Sports→TennisSettlement: Alex de MinaurLiquidity: $268.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $644.6KEvent: Erste Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur
0.0¢
Learner Tien payout
100.0¢
Alex de Minaur payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:148 trades$239.8K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 43 min agoofficial metadata 19 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alex de Minaur · $47.5K net·15 wallets(2🐋)·$135.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlex de Minaur$48.2K@ 89¢·0x2c33…0563

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Alex de Minaur. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-11-04 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur in the Erste Bank Open, originally scheduled for October 28, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Learner Tien' if Learner Tien advances against Alex de Minaur. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Learner Tien. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 20m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 20m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
quavoo2 linked markets · $2.2K gross
neutralwave232 linked markets · $514 gross
0xd76e…04b62 linked markets · $3 gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Alex de Minaur1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Alex de Minaur@ 86.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.7pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Learner Tien DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $678 → $4.6K · 7s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Learner Tien; negative values favor Alex de Minaur. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLearner Tien · $26.0K
6hAlex de Minaur · $32.6K
24hAlex de Minaur · $31.6K

Learner Tien price VWAP

Volume-weighted Learner Tien price. Alex de Minaur fills are converted to the complementary Learner Tien probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h21.74¢▼ below by 21.7pp
VWAP 7d21.76¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Learner Tien price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$35.6K
45¢
$28.8K
40¢
$10.3K
35¢
$11.0K
30¢
$0
25¢
$218
20¢
$8.2K
15¢
$826
10¢
$66.8K
5¢
$23.6K
0¢
← now
$54.6K

VPOC = 10¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlex de Minaur$10.5K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$14.4K@ 90.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlex de Minaur$48.2K@ 88.62¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLearner Tien$10.1K@ 50.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Learner Tien vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5
—$1.0Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tien vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5
—$482priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Set 2 Winner: Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur
—$417priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tien vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5
—$124priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tien vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5
—$4priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tien vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Tien vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-0.5) vs Learner Tien (+0.5)
——priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563Alex de Minaur$62.6K
BUY VWAP 88.93¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cLearner Tien$18.4K
BUY VWAP 39.62¢·3 fills
dmoralezAlex de Minaur$10.1K
BUY VWAP 93.12¢·9 fills
KkunnLearner Tien$10.1K
BUY VWAP 50.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.