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Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $48.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $925.5KEvent: Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage

Indicative prices · just now · Buy/sell quotes are shown in the orderbook.

17.6¢
Liquid
82.4¢
Aurora Gaming
0.2¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection10Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution85Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority53Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:235 trades$315.3K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 4 min agoofficial metadata 23s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $29.3K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$78.8K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$81.4K@ 74¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Liquid pressure: $31.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$31.0K
6h
−$106.9K
tracked
$315.3K

12 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $29.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.2¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 53

Since latest market sweep: -2.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Liquid or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-27 17:10 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming.

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between Liquid and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2983 linked markets · $37.3K gross
0x1610…ae492 linked markets · $32.7K gross
RN14 linked markets · $24.2K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Aurora Gaming@ 85.0¢59m ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp
WHALE FOLLOW THROUGHBUY Aurora Gaming@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -13.0pp1h CONFIRMED +10.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 74.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -17.0pp
Latest book event: Liquid DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $2.3K → $8.4K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Liquid; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLiquid · $31.0K
6hAurora Gaming · $106.9K
24hAurora Gaming · $100.9K

Liquid price VWAP

Volume-weighted Liquid price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Liquid probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current17.6¢
VWAP 24h23.54¢▼ below by 5.9pp
VWAP 7d23.54¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Liquid price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$3.1K
30¢
$11.3K
25¢
$197.6K
20¢
$7.9K
15¢
← now
$85.8K
10¢
$4.3K
5¢
$4.9K
0¢
$354

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAurora Gaming$44.8K@ 83.0¢
salgnklasf0xdad3…61cf
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLiquid$10.4K@ 15.7¢
juice-fruit0x5fdd…a747
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$40.0K@ 74.0¢
salgnklasf0xdad3…61cf
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAurora Gaming$81.4K@ 74.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner
39.5¢$366.1Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
60.0¢$124.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Games Total: O/U 2.5
43.0¢$5.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Liquid (+3.5)
60.5¢$2.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
50.5¢$903priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
0.05¢$34priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5
77.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs Liquid (+9.5)
22.5¢—priority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Aurora Gaming$81.4K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
salgnklasfAurora Gaming$40.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
0x1610…ae49Aurora Gaming$27.5K
BUY VWAP 71.63¢·10 fills
juice-fruitLiquid$16.2K
BUY VWAP 17.64¢·7 fills
yishiwuchengAurora Gaming$11.3K
BUY VWAP 81.81¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.